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Maria's guestimates of race times for swimmers

Maria's Guestimates on Swim Race Times
3/24/2014 9:48 AM
Using this Official Triathlon Swim Chart...predict your race times....

This is how I do it...

Look at your swim times under the 1500 meter column...

ie.  Maria - 26:01/1500 meter time trial

Using that as the "mean"...add/subtract 5 minutes and use the 1/2 IM and Full IM race times, in the 10 minute range to predict your race times that already take in weather, wetsuits, currents, etc.....

I estimate that I could swim:

1/2 IM - 27:41 - 39:41 for Swim
Full IM - 54:04 - 1:19:49 for Swim

Now, I understand it's a big range, however....sometimes things just happen!  In IM China 2009, the swim course was awful. The only way to get through, for me, was to swim HARD and rest at each buoy.  I swim 1:01...but, in IM Australia 2007 and IM Florida 2008, I swam 1:15/1:16, and in Kona 2009, I swam 1:28 (anomaly).  However, using the chart, and, my formula....I 3 out of 4 times was "in range."

Interestingly enough, I always swam between 35:00 - 39:00 for 1/2 IM swims, which also fits into the range.  

So, for fun, let's see if "my formula" pans out for everyone.  (If you used a wetsuit, Deborah) for the time trial...I think that your range should add/subtract 3 minutes and place you closer to a 6 minutes range.  

What do you all think?

NOTE**It would be great if you could sign up for membership on this site.  If you are taking classes from me, and, I am NOT writing programs for you...I will comp the membership.  This way I can keep the blog open only to members and avoid any unwanted chatter!  Just sign up and I will go in and comp the $35.  However, if you can pay the $35, knowing it will go to help youth athletes in the area who are "willing to work hard and surpass their goals!"  
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Michal   (3/24/2014 10:48 PM) 
Good pointer to the chart; we are using the numbers stripped of the turns, right? (not raw measured 1500)
Maria Crowley
Maria's guestimates of race times for swimmers

Here I guestimate your 1/2 IM and Full IM Swim Times based on the 1500 meter time trials from our swim this Winter 2014!
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